A note against despair

[pseudomonas]

The Conservative party have some nasty policies, and have made some nasty promises, and a lot of changes could happen in the next parliament that are pretty grim — and certainly there are a lot of positive changes that are much needed and will not happen.

But we should remember that they have a majority (even before a single by-election) that makes Major's in 1992 look generous¹. And this is a party that still contains David Davis, Ken Clarke, Sarah Wollaston, Nadine Dorries, Peter Bone — all flavours of awkward squad, left and right (relatively speaking, anyway), authoritarian and libertarian, europhile and europhobe. A lot of the policies are going to end up watered down, or defeated, or quietly swept into a disused filing-cabinet. Putting the right pressure² on the right MPs to convince them might well help. Campaigning in whatever opposition party you're a member of³ to help the Conservatives see they can't count on their majority next time will certainly help. Joining organised pressure groups like the Open Rights Group, Shelter, and Liberty will certainly help.

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¹ There's a chance that on some issues the DUP / UUP / UKIP might come to their aid, yes. But all these parties are small, UKIP sees them as the enemy on a lot of things, and having to rely on the DUP may well require of them some unpalatable quid-pro-quos. There's also a chance that on some things - the Snooper's Charter, for instance, some Labour MPs will support them. This just means that there's a broader target that needs pressure (from within and without that party).

² I personally believe that the right pressure is often more "I'd be more likely to vote for you if you do X than if you do Y" rather than "OMG all Tories are evil scum" even if the latter fits the facts better. But y'know, maybe there's a good-cop-bad-cop routine in there or something.

³ As I've said in a previous post, I'm in the Lib Dems and I think you should consider joining and making the party better and stronger — but if you're better suited to another party, please help make that party better and more effective instead.


ETA: and there's always the House of Lords there as well…

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

I've seen some suggestions that because it is a devolved matter and partially embeddd in the Scotland Act it may not be straight-forward to repeal it, that the Supreme Court (in the person of the retiring Lord Gill is begining to suggest that some UK legislation is a special more enduring class than other legislation) and that it open to the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments to re-enact the ECHR.

(Here from a link from Andrew Ducker on LJ)

[pseudomonas]

I've also seen suggestions that it's embedded in the Good Friday Agreement, which is effectively a treaty rather than a law. Also withdrawing from the ECHR isn't being suggested, just cancelling the HRA, and that's of limited effect.

My working hypothesis is that they've not thought it through and are bullshitting rather than planning to spend years of effort and political capital making themselves international pariahs. But you never know.

[po8crg]

My working hypothesis is that they were certain they weren't getting a majority and so could put it in as red meat for the back benchers and then say "sorry, couldn't get it past the Lib Dems".

And now they're stuck with actually doing it. I wonder if Gove's been told to go away and come back with something so appalling that there will be enough Tory rebels to kill it at second reading and then they never have to worry ever again. Plenty of people will believe that Gove produced something appalling on purpose because it's Gove.