pseudomonas (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
pseudomonas) wrote2015-05-11 12:58 pm
pseudomonas) wrote2015-05-11 12:58 pm
Entry tags:
A note against despair
The Conservative party have some nasty policies, and have made some nasty promises, and a lot of changes could happen in the next parliament that are pretty grim — and certainly there are a lot of positive changes that are much needed and will not happen.
But we should remember that they have a majority (even before a single by-election) that makes Major's in 1992 look generous1. And this is a party that still contains David Davis, Ken Clarke, Sarah Wollaston, Nadine Dorries, Peter Bone — all flavours of awkward squad, left and right (relatively speaking, anyway), authoritarian and libertarian, europhile and europhobe. A lot of the policies are going to end up watered down, or defeated, or quietly swept into a disused filing-cabinet. Putting the right pressure2 on the right MPs to convince them might well help. Campaigning in whatever opposition party you're a member of3 to help the Conservatives see they can't count on their majority next time will certainly help. Joining organised pressure groups like the Open Rights Group, Shelter, and Liberty will certainly help.
1 There's a chance that on some issues the DUP / UUP / UKIP might come to their aid, yes. But all these parties are small, UKIP sees them as the enemy on a lot of things, and having to rely on the DUP may well require of them some unpalatable quid-pro-quos. There's also a chance that on some things - the Snooper's Charter, for instance, some Labour MPs will support them. This just means that there's a broader target that needs pressure (from within and without that party).
2 I personally believe that the right pressure is often more "I'd be more likely to vote for you if you do X than if you do Y" rather than "OMG all Tories are evil scum" even if the latter fits the facts better. But y'know, maybe there's a good-cop-bad-cop routine in there or something.
3 As I've said in a previous post, I'm in the Lib Dems and I think you should consider joining and making the party better and stronger — but if you're better suited to another party, please help make that party better and more effective instead.
ETA: and there's always the House of Lords there as well…
But we should remember that they have a majority (even before a single by-election) that makes Major's in 1992 look generous1. And this is a party that still contains David Davis, Ken Clarke, Sarah Wollaston, Nadine Dorries, Peter Bone — all flavours of awkward squad, left and right (relatively speaking, anyway), authoritarian and libertarian, europhile and europhobe. A lot of the policies are going to end up watered down, or defeated, or quietly swept into a disused filing-cabinet. Putting the right pressure2 on the right MPs to convince them might well help. Campaigning in whatever opposition party you're a member of3 to help the Conservatives see they can't count on their majority next time will certainly help. Joining organised pressure groups like the Open Rights Group, Shelter, and Liberty will certainly help.
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1 There's a chance that on some issues the DUP / UUP / UKIP might come to their aid, yes. But all these parties are small, UKIP sees them as the enemy on a lot of things, and having to rely on the DUP may well require of them some unpalatable quid-pro-quos. There's also a chance that on some things - the Snooper's Charter, for instance, some Labour MPs will support them. This just means that there's a broader target that needs pressure (from within and without that party).
2 I personally believe that the right pressure is often more "I'd be more likely to vote for you if you do X than if you do Y" rather than "OMG all Tories are evil scum" even if the latter fits the facts better. But y'know, maybe there's a good-cop-bad-cop routine in there or something.
3 As I've said in a previous post, I'm in the Lib Dems and I think you should consider joining and making the party better and stronger — but if you're better suited to another party, please help make that party better and more effective instead.
ETA: and there's always the House of Lords there as well…
no subject
DUP are a bunch of street-fighters. If they do a deal, they'll deliver all eight votes on the deal. But check your pocket when you shake hands and make sure your wallet's still in there.
On actual policies, the DUP are more socially conservative than UUP, but not necessarily more right-wing on economics (their views are simple: cut taxes, spend more, get GB to pay for it).
But the big thing is that UUP are (well were in 1992; the modern UUP are different) from the social élite and DUP very much aren't.
I suspect the net impact is that you pay more to get a deal from the DUP, but they will deliver on the deal, and the (old) UUP couldn't be relied on to get all their votes out.